Post by Andre on Dec 28, 2015 17:29:42 GMT -5
The Washington Post - December 29th, 2015
by Isabelle Khurshudyan
As the dust settles following yesterday's blockbuster trade between Washington and Pittsburgh, seeing star winger Brandon Saad and defenseman Kevan Miller head to the Penguins for behemoth defenseman Dustin Byfuglien and centerman Joe Colborne, Capitals fans have started to weight in with their opinions. While most were happy that new GM Andre Deblois has started to address the team's woeful defense core, many were disappointed that the 23 year old Saad, a promising young forward in only his fourth year in the league, was traded for a soon-to-be 31 year old defenseman. It is never easy to part with good young players, but you have to give up talent to acquire talent, and this reporter, for one, thinks Capitals management got it right by moving Saad rather then one of the other talented young forwards on this team.
Understand that this is in no way an indictment of Saad as a player. He is a talented player who makes any team he is on better then they were without him. He may even have been the Caps best forward, though there is certainly an argument to be made for the likes of Marchand, Granlund or Gallagher. However, smart management teams factor in more then how good a player is on the ice. Building a championship level team is an asset management game, and Saad's 6 year, 36 million dollar extension, that kicks in next season, made him a poor asset. Saad is a good player, but is he good enough to live up to that contract?
In the Salary Cap era, only 11 other players have signed multi year extensions worth at least 6 million in AAV coming off of their Entry Level contracts, and Brandon Saad does not stack up very well compared to them. Alex Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Steven Stamkos and Anze Kopitar are all superstars and were well ahead of Saad on every level, so we won't bother comparing them to Saad. That leaves Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle and Vladimir Tarasenko. All four of those players have signed their extensions since the last lockout and have (relatively) similar levels of experience to Saad, making them great comparables:
Saad had easily the worst production of any of the five players over their ELC years, despite the benefits of playing for the high scoring Blackhawks (they ranked 2nd in total goals scored over his 3 seasons with them) with supremely talented skaters who could break the puck out of the defensive zone (Keith and Seabrook) as well as finish off his plays, or feed him plays for him to finish off himself (Toews, Kane, Hossa, Sharp). It could be argued that Saad could not have possibly found himself in a better situation in his formative NHL years. While it is a small sample size, he has only marginally improved his numbers this year since signing his extension with Columbus, still not managing to reach the level of any of the four other players, pre- or post-extension.
As previously mentioned, Saad is a very good hockey player, who probably has many 20-25 goal, 50-60 point seasons in his future, but he is hardly a game breaking forward at this point and there is little evidence to suggest that he will become one in the future. The NHL's Columbus Blue Jackets paid a premium for Saad because he is a two-time Stanley Cup Champion and that is a burden the Capitals did not need to take on. To get a fair value on what Saad should be making, consider that Branden Gallagher and Brad Marchand both had the same 0.56ppg rate in their ELC contract years that Saad had, and yet they will only have made 22.5 million (Gallagher) and 23 million (Marchand) in the six years after their ELCs.
I only ask those Caps fans disappointed that Saad was dealt to think of what the Capitals can do with the 6 years of term and 13-13.5 million of flexibility they now have for having traded Saad rather then Gallagher or Marchand. Not so sad anymore, are you?
